Abstract: Recent trends in rising ambientair temperature have led to an increasing interest in modelling space coolingdemand in countries that have traditionally not used cooling. In this study, abuilding stock model combined with Monte Carlo method was implemented and extendedto estimate the current and future space cooling demand in the Swiss servicesector. Building level analysis of the space cooling diffusion and coolingsystems characteristics and their evolution under climate change was conducted.The results of this study show that the space cooling demand in the Swissservice sector is 900 ± 200 GWh/year in 2015 and that it will increaseapproximately 400% in representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6, 500% inRCP 4.5, and 600% in RCP 8.5 by 2050. During the same period, growth in spacecooling saturation rate (180–200%) is the major driver of demand growth, morethan increases in total service area (35%) and cooling energy intensity(30–70%). In addition, total floor area, service area, ground floor area, andbuilding age were identified as strong predictors of probability of presence ofspace cooling equipment.

Keywords: Stock model; Air conditioning; Logisticregression; Market diffusion; Bottom-up model